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The footedness of football’s future and Sávio’s sensational output

Monday Night SCOUTED is here.

Tom Curren

28 Oct 2024 — 8 min read

Apologies in advance. You will not find any Ballon d’Or discussion, Erik ten Hag dissection, nor a Rúben Amorim deep dive in this newsletter.

Instead, this week’s Monday Night SCOUTED focuses a seismic football power shift. I must warn you, it is very number heavy.

The future of football is left-footed.

That concept has been building through this season’s MNS newsletters. Every attacking stat seemed to be littered with lefties. So, this week, I decided to look into it.

But first, I am going to focus on one left-footer in particular.

All stats are correct as of 28 October 2024 17:00 BST unless stated.

Do not sleep on Sávio

Against Southampton, Sávio became the first player of any age to record 10+ Carries into the Penalty Area in a single Big Five League game this season. He also tied the 2001+ player record for Touches inside the Penalty Area. Across all ages, only Thomas Müller and Kylian Mbappé (both 19) have recorded more in a single match.

The Brazilian also completed six take-ons and made five key passes, becoming just the second player - again, across all age groups - to record 5+ Carries into the Penalty Area, 5+ Successful Take-ons and 5+ Key Passes in a single game in 2024/25. The first player to achieve this feat was 2001-born Yann Gboho. If you add 5+ Passes into the Penalty Area, Sávio’s display against Southampton is the only result.

Since the start of 2017/18, there are six other entries of a player recording 5+ in all four metrics: Neymar, Papu Gómez, Papu Gómez again, Eden Hazard, Josip Iličic and Ferran Torres. That means, against Southampton, Sávio repeated a statistical feat that only Eden Hazard had achieved across the last eight Premier League seasons.

If we move the needle slightly and consider a Carries into the Penalty Area x Shot-Creating Actions Double-Double, there are only three entries in a Big Five European League game since 2017/18. Incredibly, all three have been recorded in the Premier League in 2024. Mohamed Salah did it against Newcastle United on New Year’s Day before Jérémy Doku joined the club against Luton Town in April; Sávio completed the trio at the weekend.

If we expand the search to all 17 domestic leagues with advanced data on the Stathead database, the list expands by just four players. Sávio is the youngest on this list.

For single matches, in Men's Club Competitions, in Any Domestic League w/ Adv. Data, requiring Carries into Penalty Area >= 10 and Shot-Creating Actions >= 10, sorted by ascending Age. Here is the link.

But this context around Sávio’s most recent display is simply a prologue to his output across the season.

The Brazilian has started six Premier League games in addition to one appearance from the bench. From these 453 minutes, he has provided two assists and is yet to score. This is where I repeat the little sub-section title: Do not sleep on Sávio.

In total, Sávio has more Carries into the Penalty Area (32) than any other 01+ player this season. Bradley Barcola (30) and Lamine Yamal (29) are the only others to hit the 25+ milestone.

Yamal is the only 01+ player that has completed more Passes into the Penalty Area (26 vs. 25), but the Spaniard has played nearly twice as many minutes. In terms of Expected Goals Assisted, only Yamal, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka and Álex Baena can beat him - all four have played at least 180 minutes more.

So, lets look at these metrics through a per 90 lens, using three 90s as the minimum minutes threshold. Spoiler alert: Sávio dominates.

He is the only 01+ player averaging 10+ Touches in the Penalty Area, the only one averaging 5+ Passes into the Penalty Area, and the only one averaging 5+ Carries into the Penalty Area (6.4).

The 2004-born Brazilian also ranks first for Shot-Creating Actions (7.9), first for Expected Assisted Goals (0.6), joint-first for Expected Assists (0.5), fourth for Key Passes (3.2) and sixth for Successful Take-ons (3.4).

Among all players born in 2001 or later with 270+ minutes in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, only three are currently averaging 2+ Shots, 2+ Key Passes, 2+ Successful Take-ons, 2+ Fouls Drawn and 0.5 Expected Assisted Goals: Bukayo Saka, Lamine Yamal and Sávio Moreira de Oliveira.

Here is a link to a custom Stathead table if you want to marvel at more stats

From this research, I also discovered that 10 (TEN!) of the 13 players born in 2001 or later that are averaging 5+ Shot-Creating Actions per 90 in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season are left-footed.

I told you, the future of football is left-footed.

Utter Woke Nonsense

On Wednesday night, Raphinha’s hat-trick against Bayern prompted this post.

Usually, no one pays attention. That’s absolutely fine. But it led to a brief piece of insight from one of the most insightful youth football experts.

Connor’s final remark is an investigation for another time. But this interaction prompted a small piece of research to see whether my theory had any legs.

Here it goes…

In 2022/23, 37 players were directly involved in 20+ goals across Europe’s Big Five Leagues, seven were left-footed - that’s 18.9%. In 2023/24, 40 players were directly involved in 20+ goals and 14 of them were left-footed - that’s 35%. This season, a 7 G/A cut-off for 2024/25 provides us with another group of 37 players, 14 of them are left-footers - that’s 37.8%.

I appreciate this is far from an exact science but seeing the number of left-footers double within a group of the 37 most productive players in Europe is quite the jump.

Going deeper…

In 2022/23, three of the top 10 for G/A were left-footed. In 2023/24, five of the top 11 were left-footed (Deniz Undav and Mohamed Salah were joint-10th). This season, 10 players have been directly involved in 10 goals and six of them are left-footers.

Of those six, three were born in 2001 or later - Lamine Yamal, Bukayo Saka and Cole Palamer - while Erling Haaland was born in the year 2000. In fact, the average age of those six left-footers is 24 years old compared to 29 years old for the right-footers.

The Left have claimed a majority. The future of football is left-footed.

SCOUTED Stats

I will start with an unfortunate stat-trick.

Harry Clarke, on his first Premier League start, scored an own goal, conceded a penalty and was sent off as Ipswich Town lost 4-3 to Brentford. This must be the most undesirable hat-trick in football. But I had to find some context.

Sadly, Stathead’s in-game data for penalties conceded only dates back to 2016/17 for the Premier League and 2015/16 for the remaining Big Five Leagues. In that time frame, only Clarke, Franco Russo for Mallorca against Villarreal and Jan Bednarek in Southampton’s 9-0 defeat to Manchester United have completed this hapless hat-trick.

If we remove penalties conceded, the Stathead database covers the entire Premier League era for red cards and own goals, even extending back to 1988/89 for the other four divisions. 35 players have scored an own goal and received a red card in the same game within that criteria - Clarke becomes the sixth-youngest player to do so.

Emerson Royal is the youngest, doing so for Real Betis against Real Madrid aged 21 years and 256 days old. I was sad to see Zaydou Youssouf in second, the now-Famalicão midfielder would be my Recommended Signing if I existed on Football Manager and you added me to your backroom stuff.

The entire list is a very good list. It includes Jonathan Woodgate, of course, as well as Yaya Touré (for Monaco), Per Mertesacker (for Werder Bremen), and even Gareth Southgate. You can see all 35 players by clicking here.

Climbs out of rabbit hole…

**Monday Night SCOUTED** would not be possible without an annual subscription to **Stathead**. That is why we are official **FBref** Brand Ambassadors.

Now for the nice stats.

On Friday night, Anthony Elanga (12) and Abdul Fatawu (11) ensured Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest became the first game this season to see two 01+ players attempt 10+ Crosses each in a single game. However, they both fell short of Sávio’s record of 13 against Wolves, set last weekend. Him again.

Tom Bischof equalled the record for Tackles Made in the Middle Third with five against Heidenheim. Bischof recently featured in my UEFA Competition Watchlist because of his attacking output. He is very much worth following.

Moisés Caicedo equalled the record for Interceptions with six against Newcastle United. He also made four tackles in this match, making him the 11th player to record 10+ Tackles + Interceptions in a single game this season. And he still jointly holds the record for Tackles Made in the Defensive Third (7 against West Ham United).

Matteo Ruggeri equalled the record for Ball Recoveries in Atalanta’s 6-1 thumping of Hellas Verona. The Italian wing-back now shares the record of 13 with Tim Iroegbunam and Guela Doué.

To finish, an entirely irrelevant stat that means absolutely nothing.

Alieu Eybi Njie scored his first-ever senior goal with his second-ever shot in Serie A. That does mean something, it is a moment that the 19-year-old will remember forever. The fact it secured a 1-0 for Torino will make the memory even more special.

The absolutely irrelevant part is that his only shot of the game generated an Expected Goals figure of 0.94. The teenager won an aerial duel, pressed the loose ball to force the defender into an under-hit headed back-pass, dribbled past the goalkeeper, and then passed the ball into an empty net. Gol.

All this is to say that Njie recorded the highest NPxG per Shot average by a 01+ player in a Big Five European League game this season. This does not tell us anything about the Sweden U-19 international’s style of play or his ceiling. But I have made it my duty to check every Stathead metric and tell you when we have a new SCOUTED Stat leader. The only thing that would have made this better was if he was left-footed.